Carlos Alcaraz vs. The Massive 3. A visible information comparability of how the… | by Abhi Sawhney | Jul, 2023

A visible information comparability of how the rising tennis star measures up in opposition to Roger, Rafa, and Novak

For many years, males’s tennis has been synonymous with its dominant large three — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. It has been a singular period in tennis, as it might in some other sport, with arguably three of its most profitable gamers of all time enjoying collectively in a single technology. Between them, the massive three (proven in inexperienced beneath) have gained 65 of the 82 Grand Slam tournaments since 2003.

Nonetheless, with Roger’s retirement in 2022, Rafa’s present absence because of an harm, and Novak’s latest loss to Carlos Alcaraz in an epic Wimbledon ultimate, the passing of the torch appears to be properly underway.

As tennis begins to think about a world with out its large three, followers and consultants have been questioning if any participant may have a profession as embellished as Roger, Rafa, or Novak once more, successful greater than 20 Grand Slams. A yr or two in the past, it might have been foolish to even assume such a factor, not to mention ask it out loud.

With the unimaginable rise of 20-year-old world primary Carlos Alcaraz, the tennis world has needed to cease and rethink. It’s much less controversial to entertain that thought at this time. As a tennis fan, you’ll doubtless have seen loads of commentary and media protection evaluating Carlos with the massive three. Nonetheless, few, if any, of those discussions have in contrast Carlos’ performances so far, with the massive three at an identical early stage of their profession. Evaluating Carlos’ stage in his tenth Grand Slam primary draw look with Novak’s in his 71st, though thrilling to do, is just not an entire image.

Knowledge Supply and Evaluation Scope

As a tennis fan and a knowledge skilled, I’ve been desirous to see extra of an apples-to-apples comparability, evaluating participant performances at related factors of their careers. Fortuitously, it was attainable to do such an evaluation due to all the good work Jeff Sackmann has executed in making tour-level ATP match information obtainable through his tennis_atp GitHub repository. This repository and, extra broadly, his GitHub are nice assets for anybody concerned about tennis analytics. With entry to this information and a few evaluation in Pandas and Matplotlib, we will develop a extra nuanced perspective on how Carlos’ early profession compares with the massive three’s.

We are going to focus particularly on Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments, the 2 most sought-after match classes, and broaden the comparability to incorporate the top ten players as an alternative of limiting it to simply Carlos. This may assist present added context and perspective to the performances.

To kick issues off, here’s a present state comparability of the variety of Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments gained by the massive three and at this time’s high ten ranked gamers (as of July seventeenth, 2023).

The one factor we will decisively say from that is that the present hole between the massive three and the highest ten is kind of giant. It will be useful to know the trail Roger, Rafa, and Novak took to get to the place they’re.

To do that, allow us to examine participant journeys over the 2 primary match classes proven above. We are going to start with the Masters 1000 tournaments earlier than progressing to the all-important Grand Slams.

Masters 1000s

The chart beneath maps the journey of the massive three and 7 different gamers from the highest ten at this time who’ve gained not less than one Masters 1000 match. The x-axis represents the depend of Masters 1000 tournaments performed (primary draw onwards), and the y-axis represents the variety of Masters 1000 tournaments gained. The upper the participant trendline at a sure level, the higher the efficiency to that time.

The longevity and sustained success of the massive three instantly leap out, with every member of the trio enjoying greater than 120 Masters 1000 tournaments and successful properly over 20 titles a chunk. For this dialogue, nevertheless, allow us to zoom into the underside left quadrant highlighted above, specializing in evaluating two standout gamers with the massive three.

Daniil Medvedev’s six Masters 1000 titles are the many of the present high ten gamers (not together with Novak). He was slower out of the blocks than Rafa and Novak, successful his first Masters 1000 title on his twenty first look. With six titles in 42 tournaments, he’s presently barely forward of the place Novak was at this stage and tied with Roger.

The standout, nevertheless, is Carlos Alcaraz. Together with his first Masters 1000 title coming in simply his seventh look, Carlos was faster out of the gate than every of the massive three. After enjoying 16 Masters 1000 tournaments, he’s tied on the high with Rafa at 4 titles and properly forward of Novak (2) and Roger (0) at an identical stage.

Grand Slams

Allow us to see if these tendencies additionally maintain on the most important stage — Grand Slams. Carlos and Daniil are the one gamers within the high ten outdoors of Novak who’ve gained a Grand Slam. Allow us to examine their Grand Slam journeys with the massive three beneath.

Daniil, with only one Grand Slam title in 25 appearances, is now barely behind Novak (2) and properly behind Roger (5) and Rafa (8). In the meantime, Carlos is off to a flyer, successful two Grand Slam titles properly earlier than Novak and Roger gained their first.

Provided that there are solely 4 Grand Slam tournaments every year, the information set at a match stage for Grand Slams is kind of restricted for gamers early of their careers. As an alternative, for added perception into Grand Slam performances, allow us to improve the granularity of our information from a match stage to a match stage.

Within the chart beneath, the x-axis represents the variety of Grand Slam matches performed (primary draw onwards), and the y-axis represents the variety of Grand Slam matches gained.

This view provides us a way of how deep into the knockout tournaments every participant has been going. After 44 Grand Slam matches, Carlos shares the highest spot with Rafa at 36 wins and shall be alone on the high if he wins his first-round match on the US Open later this yr.

From the information above, it’s clear that Carlos Alcaraz is an absolute phenom. His case is much more compelling if we think about age as an element. Allow us to check out the variety of Masters 1000s and Grand Slam tournaments every of those gamers had gained earlier than turning 25.

Because the youngest ever males’s world primary at 19, and with two Grand Slams and 4 Masters 1000s at simply 20, Carlos has an extended runway forward.

However, as with most all-time greats, what is actually particular concerning the large three is how lengthy they’ve been as nice as they’ve. If Carlos can stay wholesome and proceed to be as dominant as he’s at this time whereas the x-axes in these charts lengthen out match after match, yr after yr, the massive three may need to make some room.

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